Global liquidity and macro cycles remain supportive into 2026, with key implications for gold, silver and Bitcoin amid slowing momentum and persistent fiscal dominance.

Today the Ainslie Research team brings you the latest monthly update on Bitcoin – including the Macro fundamentals, market and on-chain technical metrics and all of the other factors currently driving its adoption and price.

October’s macro update shows a maturing global liquidity cycle with nominal growth intact but rate-of-change slowing, implying a cautious transition to mid-cycle. Bitcoin, gold, and silver remain poised for upside through year-end, supported by fiscal dominance and structural tailwinds.

Bitcoin's performance remains closely tied to global liquidity trends, which have slowed in recent weeks but are expected to improve into Q4. Meanwhile, institutional adoption is accelerating, with ETFs and corporate holdings marking Bitcoin’s emergence as a strategic asset amid evolving macro conditions.

The global economy remains in an extended early phase of the macro cycle, with uneven but elevated liquidity and stabilising inflation opening the door to continued asset growth. Bitcoin’s short-term softness may present buying opportunities, while gold holds firm and silver is increasingly favoured amid industrial momentum and a falling gold-to-silver ratio.

Bitcoin’s price action remains tightly linked to global liquidity, which is forecast to improve into Q4 amid widespread central bank easing and rising PMIs. With macro conditions supportive and policy direction favouring risk assets, Bitcoin appears well-positioned for strong performance into year-end.

Markets are currently in an early macro cycle phase marked by inconsistent liquidity and subdued growth, with potential for a final liquidity-driven boom. Bitcoin signals caution amid weakness, while gold and silver show strength, especially silver, with strategic trading opportunities highlighted.

Bitcoin continues to outperform as global liquidity expands and central banks ease policy despite persistent inflation. Institutional adoption is accelerating, with new 401(k) access and ETF flows pointing to a growing structural shift in investor demand.

Global markets remain in an early-cycle phase, with rising liquidity from China and US stimulus fuelling resilience in equities, Bitcoin, and precious metals. Gold holds firm near highs, while silver looks undervalued and poised to outperform on tightening supply and growing industrial demand.

Bitcoin’s price surge in July 2025 is driven by expanding global liquidity, favourable macro conditions, and pro-crypto legislation such as the GENIUS Act. Institutional buying, massive infrastructure investments in AI, and shifting fiscal dynamics point to continued momentum.

Global liquidity, nearing US$180 trillion, continues to fuel risk assets, with Bitcoin rebounding, gold steady at highs, and silver seen as undervalued. Ainslie Research views the cycle as early-to-mid phase, suggesting further upside ahead for all three assets.

Bitcoin has reached $110,000 as global liquidity and fiscal stimulus drive its price higher, confirming its strong correlation with macroeconomic cycles. With rising deficits, concentrated wealth, and structural reliance on liquidity, the economy now depends heavily on sustained asset performance and monetary support.

Ainslie Research’s May 2025 update reveals markets have reset to an early-cycle phase amid expanding global liquidity, with Gold steady, Silver poised for gains, and Bitcoin rebounding above US$100,000. Investors are encouraged to align strategies with the liquidity cycle, as fiscal stimulus and easing pressures continue to support asset growth.

Ainslie Research’s May 2025 update reveals Bitcoin’s surge past US$100,000, fuelled by a favourable global liquidity cycle, regulatory changes like the GENIUS Act, and fiscal stimulus. As traditional portfolios underperform, Bitcoin’s role as a diversification tool gains traction, offering potential for further upside.

Ainslie Research’s April 2025 update reveals global liquidity reaching record highs, boosting Bitcoin’s rebound above US$90,000 and supporting sustained gold demand amid central bank buying. Silver stands out as a potential outperformer as the gold-silver ratio reaches historical extremes, setting the stage for a catch-up rally.

Ainslie Research’s April 2025 update highlights Bitcoin’s rebound above US$90,000 amid easing financial conditions, strong ETF inflows, and stabilizing global liquidity. With inflation subdued and the worst of tariff concerns priced in, Bitcoin looks set to benefit from a supportive policy pivot and expanding liquidity.

Ainslie Research’s March 2025 update highlights an upward but hesitant global liquidity cycle, supporting cautious optimism for Bitcoin, gold, and silver. While Bitcoin faces near-term volatility, gold benefits from central bank demand, and silver remains an attractive late-cycle play.

Ainslie Research’s March 2025 update highlights Bitcoin’s resilience amid stable liquidity and policy headwinds, with ETF outflows reflecting technical adjustments. Long-term adoption, aided by the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, suggests strong upside potential despite near-term volatility.

Ainslie Research’s February 2025 analysis suggests that despite Bitcoin’s recent correction, rising global liquidity and a mid-cycle macro environment favour a long-term bullish outlook. Gold nears US$3,000 amid central bank buying, while silver’s upside potential grows as the gold-silver ratio stretches past 90.

Ainslie Research’s February 2025 update shows Bitcoin consolidating after a strong run, with liquidity and macro factors supporting its long-term outlook. Generational wealth transfer and disenfranchised younger investors bolster Bitcoin’s adoption as a hedge against systemic risks.