Bitcoin has recalibrated near key supports with bearish inclination on the momentum indicator while gold and silver continue to show weakness, yet maintain structural resilience.

Global liquidity and macro cycles remain supportive into 2026, with key implications for gold, silver and Bitcoin amid slowing momentum and persistent fiscal dominance.

Today the Ainslie Research team brings you the latest monthly update on Bitcoin – including the Macro fundamentals, market and on-chain technical metrics and all of the other factors currently driving its adoption and price.

October’s macro update shows a maturing global liquidity cycle with nominal growth intact but rate-of-change slowing, implying a cautious transition to mid-cycle. Bitcoin, gold, and silver remain poised for upside through year-end, supported by fiscal dominance and structural tailwinds.

Bitcoin's performance remains closely tied to global liquidity trends, which have slowed in recent weeks but are expected to improve into Q4. Meanwhile, institutional adoption is accelerating, with ETFs and corporate holdings marking Bitcoin’s emergence as a strategic asset amid evolving macro conditions.

The global economy remains in an extended early phase of the macro cycle, with uneven but elevated liquidity and stabilising inflation opening the door to continued asset growth. Bitcoin’s short-term softness may present buying opportunities, while gold holds firm and silver is increasingly favoured amid industrial momentum and a falling gold-to-silver ratio.

Bitcoin’s price action remains tightly linked to global liquidity, which is forecast to improve into Q4 amid widespread central bank easing and rising PMIs. With macro conditions supportive and policy direction favouring risk assets, Bitcoin appears well-positioned for strong performance into year-end.

Markets are currently in an early macro cycle phase marked by inconsistent liquidity and subdued growth, with potential for a final liquidity-driven boom. Bitcoin signals caution amid weakness, while gold and silver show strength, especially silver, with strategic trading opportunities highlighted.

Bitcoin continues to outperform as global liquidity expands and central banks ease policy despite persistent inflation. Institutional adoption is accelerating, with new 401(k) access and ETF flows pointing to a growing structural shift in investor demand.

Global markets remain in an early-cycle phase, with rising liquidity from China and US stimulus fuelling resilience in equities, Bitcoin, and precious metals. Gold holds firm near highs, while silver looks undervalued and poised to outperform on tightening supply and growing industrial demand.

Bitcoin’s price surge in July 2025 is driven by expanding global liquidity, favourable macro conditions, and pro-crypto legislation such as the GENIUS Act. Institutional buying, massive infrastructure investments in AI, and shifting fiscal dynamics point to continued momentum.

Global liquidity, nearing US$180 trillion, continues to fuel risk assets, with Bitcoin rebounding, gold steady at highs, and silver seen as undervalued. Ainslie Research views the cycle as early-to-mid phase, suggesting further upside ahead for all three assets.